Opportunities in the U.S. Remain

Translation of a Dutch article originally published in VOKA Magazine (April 2025)

A Changing Landscape, but a Land of Possibility

Ten years after moving from Belgium to Silicon Valley, I continue to believe in the strength and opportunities of the U.S. market. With Expandify, I help European B2B companies define a clear and focused strategy for their U.S. expansion, identifying what makes them unique, where they should focus, and how to reach their goals.

We spoke just before the announcement of new import tariffs, a moment that once again highlighted how quickly the U.S. economic landscape can shift.

“With Expandify, I work with European companies to build a solid and clear strategy for the U.S.: what is their focus in this vast market, what are their goals, and how will they achieve them? I mainly work with B2B companies that have something unique to offer the American market. Entrepreneurs rightly see many opportunities in the U.S., but they also become overwhelmed very quickly. The market has always been large and complex, partly because every state has its own identity, laws, and policies. Focus is essential here. In recent months, a significant dose of uncertainty has been added to that.”

Strategy Requires Clarity and Reliable Data

To build a strategy, you start from your company, your market, and concrete objectives. Such a strategy must be based on informed data. “That is extremely difficult today because things change every single day. One day, 100,000 civil servants are laid off; shortly after, 25,000 are rehired. Import tariffs of 25 percent on Canadian and Mexican products are introduced and then partially postponed. New surprises pop up daily, and that creates a lot of uncertainty. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, based on three indicators, is at a historic high. That peak continues and keeps rising. This ongoing uncertainty weighs heavily on investments.”

Three Factors Shaping Today’s U.S. Economy

I see three main factors currently defining the U.S. economic climate.

“First, import tariffs. During Trump’s first term, there was still a patchwork of exceptions, but today he is trying to implement these tariffs as uniform blocks. In February 2025, tariff revenues were already 13 percent higher than a year earlier.

Second, the DOGE reforms. Striving for efficiency is noble, but the way it is being done is drastic. Federal agencies are facing major budget cuts, leaving less funding for research and education, and leading to significant downsizing at institutions such as the IRS, national parks, and USAID.

Third, immigration. Undocumented immigrants are being sent back, yet this group keeps a large part of the U.S. economy running, especially in agriculture and services. If they disappear, some sectors risk grinding to a halt.”

A Recession?

“The American stock market is performing poorly, consumer confidence is falling, the dollar is volatile, and inflation threatens to rise from 3 to between 4 and 6 percent. Some forecasts even predict inflation of up to 10 percent. Only unemployment remains relatively stable for now. Everything points to an approaching recession, and Trump himself does not deny it. He sees it as a necessary evil.”

The warning signs are not limited to macroeconomic data; the impact is already visible on the ground. “The termination of USAID programs is disastrous for agricultural companies that export through those programs. And who will work in the fields when migrant labor disappears? Tourism, too, is seeing a strong decline. In January 2025, there were 20 percent fewer bookings from the Netherlands than a year earlier. In California, where tourism ranks among the top five industries, that is strongly felt.

Universities are also stopping research projects. European universities are inviting their researchers to return to Europe, and a brain drain from the U.S. is looming. Education and research are the foundation of the economy, so this trend is worrying.

On top of that, many Americans are already feeling the rising cost of living. The question is what will happen when the ‘Trumpcession’ really hits. Seventy-seven million Americans voted for Trump. What happens when those people start to struggle? Americans care less about geopolitics, but they care deeply about what they feel in their wallets.”

Staying Positive: Finding Opportunity in Uncertainty

Despite the turbulence, I remain optimistic about the opportunities that exist for companies willing to take a strategic and grounded approach.

“Trade conflicts are bad for the economy, but not necessarily for every individual company. Even in times of crisis, there are opportunities. Look at your own business and do not let yourself be overly influenced by the general news. I like to refer to a quote by American author Maya Angelou:

‘Hoping for the best, prepared for the worst, and unsurprised by anything in between.’

Advice for European Companies

I advise European companies to base their strategy even more than before on facts and relevant data.

“Don’t be swayed by sensational media stories. Look at what is really happening in your sector: subsidies, legislation, competition, market research. Take uncertainty consciously into account in your planning. Work with scenarios: what if things turn out positively, what if they turn out negatively? But also look at what will not change.

The United States remains a huge opportunity, especially for companies with unique products that are essential and cannot easily be produced locally.”